Monday, September 29, 2008

Week 6 Game Picks and Upsets

Last week I was 2/4 in my picks and 2/3 in my upsets. It was a crazy week with three teams in the top 10 going down and plenty of other upsets. There are a three big games this week and here they are:


Florida State @ Miami


Five years ago, this game would have had serious national championship implications. Now, both teams are unranked and are struggling to regain their prominence in College Football. Last year, Miami travelled to Tallahassee and knocked off the Seminoles 37-29. The most intriguing part of this matchup is the question, which team will return to their glory days first. A win in this game will somewhat answer that question.


Score: 27-20 Miami




Oregon @ USC


Each teams has 1 loss with USC getting falling last week to Oregon's rival, Oregon State. Last year Oregon beat USC in a close game 24-17. You must remember that Oregon played USC with a healthy Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart. This year I look for USC to pound Oregon. Oregon does not have a reliable quarterback to play in the hostile environment that is the Colliseum.


Score: 41-24 USC




Ohio State @ Wisconsin


Could this be the year that Wisconsin finally beats Ohio State? In my opinion, yes it is. Each team already has a loss with Wisconsin getting upset by Michigan and the Buckeyes getting waxed by USC. The big question is if super-frosh Terrelle Pryor can win a game against a real opponent. We'll have to see how he does in a crazy stadium.


Score: 24-17 Wisconsin



Upset Watch

Colorado over Texas

North Carolina over Connecticut - Don't know if this is classified as an upset but UConn is ranked.

Oregon State over Utah
Photos courtesy of Google

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Top 25 After Week 5

Here is my top 25 after week 5:

1) Oklahoma - By far the best looking team.
2) Alabama - That win over Georgia was huge. I'm still not sold though.
3) LSU- Looks like a three team race for the SEC West.
4) Mizzou- Chase Daniel + Jeremy Maclin = Dangerous.
5) Penn State- They look like a very balanced and dangerous team.
6) Texas- Quietly climbing the polls. Absolutley destroyed Arkansas.
7) USC- Still a very good team and will more than likely return to the top.
8) BYU- Can they avoid an upset?
9) USF- Looking good so far!
10) Florida- Still have a stacked team and they still have Tebow.
11) Texas Tech- Very dangerous offense but can the D stop anyone?
12) Georgia- Same reasoning as Florida but replace Tebow with Stafford and Moreno.
13) Ohio State- Still near the top of the big ten but make way for Penn State!
14) Auburn- Great defense but the offense is slacking.
15) Vanderbilt- Definitely not going to survive the heart of the SEC.
16) Boise State- Easy remaining schedule could put Boise State in the top 10.
17) Virginia Tech- Still the best team in the ACC. For now anyway...
18) Oregon- Still a very dangerous team, no matter who is at QB.
19) Wisconsin- Tough loss to Michigan.
20) Connecticut- Lets see how they fare against some real teams.
21) Oklahoma State- Zac Robinson has been lighting it up.
22) Utah- Undefeated, but can they avoid a slip-up?
23) Wake Forest- Tough loss to Navy. Still near the top of the ACC
24) Fresno State- The tough part of the schedule is over now
25) Notre Dame- They are 3-1 and beat Michigan and Purdue. That deserves a little respect.

The BCS Busters

After week 5 there are 4 teams that I feel can bust the BCS party. The usual suspects like BYU and Utah are still on my list but two new teams have risen. Here are my four teams, in order, that have the greatest shot at playing in a BCS game.


BYU


BYU is in control of their own destiny. If they can win the rest of their games they will play in a BCS game. Heck, with the way this season is going, if BYU wins all of their games they may just be playing for the National Championship. BYU has two obstacles on their way to a perfect season. The first being a road game against TCU which will be a tough game for them. The second is playing at Utah in what should be a fantastic rivalry game with BCS implications on the line. This game could mean more than ever this year. The main concern for BYU is if their defense can hold up. BYU has only three returning starters from last years 11-2 team. I think BYU will make it to a BCS game because they have such a great offense and a great quarterback in Max Hall.




Boise State


Boise State is known for busting into the BCS game in 2006 and taking down the powerful Sooners of Oklahoma. Last year they were 1 win away from playing in another BCS game. Boise State has been one of the most dominant programs during the last five years having the third most wins of any program. With this fairly young but talented group led by senior running back Ian Johnson, the Broncos have a good shot at playing in another BCS game. The possible obstacles are games At Southern Miss and a game against a tough WAC opponent Fresno State. If Boise State finishes the season unbeaten and BYU loses one game, they will most likely get in.




Utah


Utah is led by their senior quarterback Brian Johnson and senior running back Darrell Mack. They got out of September without a scratch but a closer than thought game with Weber State has me feeling skeptical about the Utes. They still must play TCU and BYU at home which will give them an advantage. They also must play the Beavers of Oregon State who are riding high after their upset of #1 USC. The Utes are rolling, winning their last 13 of 14 games but I feel that they will slip up against one of the three teams previously mentioned.




Ball State


This is a dark horse for a BCS buster but they may just have the talent, and the favorable schedule to go undefeated. The Cardinals should be 10-0 heading into their two final games against Central Michigan and Western Michigan. The loss of wide receiver Dante Love is a tough one to overcome but it may just inspire Ball State to try harder. Nate Davis is a phenomenal quarterback who possesses great leadership and qualities that NFL scouts love. I think Nate Davis can lead the Cardinals to an undefeated season but many things must fall into place for Ball State to have any shot at playing in a BCS game. Believe!




Photos Courtesy of Google

Monday, September 22, 2008

Week 5 Game Picks

Last week I was 3/4 in my picks and 2/6 on my upsets. There are not many good games this week but there are still some that catch my eye. Here are my picks for this week:

Alabama @ Georgia

Alabama, so far, has steamrolled through their first four opponents averaging 36 points on offense and only 9.3 points on defense. Though they have beaten some quality teams like Clemson and Arkansas, they haven't played in a game quite like this. Saturday night in Sanford Stadium will be too much for these 'youngsters' from Alabama too handle. Plus, Georgia is bringing out the black jerseys which should get the crowd even more rowdy. Alabama does have considerable talent and that talent must mature quickly or this game will get out of hand. If Alabama can minimize their mistakes they will be able to keep the game close.

Score: 31-24 Georgia



Illinois @ Penn State

This should be an interesting game to watch. These two teams have similar quarterbacks with Daryl Clark and Juice Williams running the show. These teams also run similar versions of the spread. Illinois has been struggling this season barely squeaking by Louisiana-Lafayette in their last game. Illinois is coming off a bye weeks which may help them in preparing for Penn State's offense. Penn State has just been dominant in its first 4 games and I look for that trend to continue.

Score: 35-24 Penn State



North Carolina @ Miami

North Carolina is coming off of a bitter loss to Virgina Tech 20-17 while Miami is coming off a drubbing of Texas A&M. I'm still not convinced that Miami has consistent quarterback play and I don't feel they will be able to move the ball efficiently and minimize turnovers. North Carolina has a fairly good defense and I feel it will give Miami problems moving the ball. While some people are high on Miami after their big win, I am going with North Carolina to get the job done.

Score: 24-10 North Carolina



Colorado @ Florida State

Florida State committed 7, yes 7, turnovers last week against Wake Forest. On paper Florida State's defence looks impenetrable but remember that they have played two D1-AA opponents thus far. Colorado is still riding high after their upset over West Virginia last week in Boulder. I think Colorado wins this low scoring ugly game. I have no faith in FSU after their quarterbacks combined to throw 5 picks last weekend.

Score: 17-6 Colorado



Upset Watch

Watch out for these upsets this week:

Oregon State over USC

Syracuse over Pitt

Houston over East Carolina





Photos Courtesy of Google

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Contenders and Pretenders

After week 3, there are some teams who have started off strong but can they keep it up throughout the season? I will give you six teams who I feel are either contenders or pretenders. Here we go:

Penn State Nittany Lions


Picked to finish 7th in the Big Ten by sporting news, the 'Lions have rallied over their new found superstar quarterback, Daryll Clark. JoePa has finally arrived in the 21st century with his play calling. The Nittany Lions run a type of spread offense which they like to call "Spread HD". With the dual threat capability of Clark, this offense if perfect for them. They have just steamrolled over their first three opponents this year. They have outscored their opponents 166-37. When the Big Ten season starts the Nittany Lions have to play at Ohio State and Wisconsin which can be trouble. But not to fear, Penn State has plenty of experience. They have 8 senior starters on offense. With this dynamic offense, Penn State may surprise a few people and win 10 or 11 games and find themselves playing in a BCS bowl.

Verdict: Contender


Utah Utes

Utah has quickly become a potential BCS buster this season. Many people feel that they have the talent to run the table and play in a BCS game. After starting the year 3-0 and upsetting Michigan, the only real challenges for Utah are Oregon State, BYU and TCU in which they play those three at home. In my opinion I think they will falter and lose at least two games. They are far too inconsistent to run the table. Remember that this is a team who beat UCLA 44-6 and then was blanked by UNLV 27-0 the following week. This is not a team that I would put my money on to run the table because of their inconsistency.

Verdict: Pretender


Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama started off the year at #24 in the AP poll. After beating Clemson, Tulane and Western Kentucky they suddenly leap-frogged ahead to #9 in the AP poll. Yes, they manhandled Clemson and yes, they do deserve to be ranked this high but I just dont feel that their success will continue. With a brutal schedule (@ Georgia, @ Tennessee, @ LSU and home to Auburn) and lack of experience on defense I would be surprised if Alabama finished the year with 8 wins. Alabama may be a title contender in the next few years but I doubt that they will be this year.

Verdict: Pretender

BYU Cougars

BYU has gotten through the hard part of their schedule already. They played two BCS conference teams in Washington and UCLA. Now, the only two games I could possibly see them losing would be at Utah and at TCU. But I feel that BYU will run the table and play in a BCS game. They have so much experience (the only starter not a Junior or Senior is star running back Harvey Unga) and are very motivated to finally play in a BCS game. Furthermore, they a sure-fire, consistent quarterback in Max Hall who, by the way, threw 7 touchdown passes against UCLA in a 59-0 win. Can you say BCS?

Verdict: Contender


North Carolina Tar Heels

UNC won only 4 games last year but many people, including me, feel that they are this year's Kansas. They return 10 starters on offense and return their entire secondary. This team has the talent to do big things. They must get over a few tough games in the schedule but overall their schedule is favorable to them (missing Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida State). In my opinion this team is capable of winning the ACC. With the conference down, it wouldn't be too much of a long shot if North Carolina shocked the world and made it to a BCS bowl. North Carolina is a team on the rise and I expect them to get better and better as time passes.

Verdict: Contender


East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina is 16th in the recent AP poll after beating Virgina Tech and West Virginia in consecutive weeks and winning a hard fought game over Tulane. It looks as if ECU is headed for a perfect season and a C-USA title. Before everyone starts talking BCS, remember that this team is notorious for losing winnable games late in the season against conference opponents. Last year they lost to Marshall 26-7 late in the season. They still must play at UCF, at Southern Miss, at NC State and at Virginia. Still convinced that they can run the table? I would be surprised if ECU can come out of the season with only 2 losses. As much as I want them to succeed, I still feel that they wont. Prove me wrong ECU!

Verdict: Pretender



Photos courtesy of Google.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Week 4 Game Picks

Well, my first week of predicting was mediocre. I went 4/4 on my predictions but 0/4 on my upsets. This week I'm hoping to do better. Here are my picks:

LSU @ Auburn
The winner of this game puts itself in a favorable position to win the SEC West. LSU has had arguably the weakest schedule to this point playing Appalachian State, Troy and North Texas. Auburn is fresh of an ugly, defensive game in which they beat Mississippi State 3-2. Auburn has a very talented and ferocious defense and I expect them to pressure Andrew Hatch and shut down LSU's offense and never let them get into a rhythm. Offensively Auburn does not need to score too much, all they need to do is keep the clock moving, and not turn it over and they should win the ball game.

Score: 17-10 Auburn

Miami (FL) @ Texas A&M


A game between two programs that have fallen off quite a bit since their glory days. Last Season, Texas A&M travelled to Miami only to get trounced by 'The U' 34-17. The score seems closer than the game was because Miami scored the first 31 points of the game. This year Texas A&M gets to play at home where it seems they have a better advantage. I think Miami will go into Kyle Field and beat A&M for the second year in a row.

Score: 28-17 Miami


Georgia @ Arizona State

Arizona State, in my opinion was the most overrated team coming into this season. That is why I was so happy when they were upset by UNLV. They never showed up in big games last year losing to USC, Texas and Oregon by a combined score of 131-81. All the preseason talk about beating Georgia and the 'Dawgs' losing "in the desert" have surly fired Georgia up. This is the most Georgia has travelled for an out-of-conference game in a long time so look for that to be a bit of a factor. Having said that, Georgia shouldn't have much trouble taking care of Arizona State.

Score: 41-27 Georgia


Florida @ Tennessee

An SEC East match up between my two favorite teams ( Yes, I like two teams who are rivals). Another game with big SEC implications between two big rivals. Last year Tennessee had no answer for the speed of the gators and got blown out 59-20. This year, Florida must travel to Tennessee where Tennessee is looking for some revenge. I think the game will be a lot closer but Florida pulls away in the end.

Score: 45-31 Florida


Upset Watch

Look out for these Upsets:

Central Michigan over Purdue

FAU over Minnesota

Boise State over Oregon

Air Force over Utah

Florida State over Wake Forest

Ball State over Indiana

Photos Courtesy of Google

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Week 3 Game Picks

With the first "real" week of games coming up I am going to share my thoughts on some of the key games.




Kansas @ USF

This is Kansas' first real test this year. Both teams run a similar kind of offense with similar quarterbacks but I think South Florida's defense is a bit better. This will be a tight game but I think USF will be too much for Kansas.

Score: 34-31 USF



BYU @ UCLA
BYU got a major scare last week from Jake Locker and his Washington Huskies. This week I think BYU comes out more focused. From the one game I saw of UCLA, they seem to turn the ball over and do not have consistent quarterback play.

Score: 21-13 BYU



Wisconsin @ Fresno State

Fresno State came into the season with alot of hype and I think there hopes of making it to a BCS bowl will be gone after this week. Wisconsin has been playing well early on in the season despite playing poorly in the first quarter against Marshall.

Score: 24- 17 Wisconsin




Ohio State @ USC



The biggest college football game in a while will undoubtedly be a good one. Ohio State struggled mightily against Ohio and even though Chris Wells is cleared to play I doubt he will be too much of a factor. After demolishing Virginia, USC had a week off to rest and prepare for OSU. I think that USC will come out a little rusty but will eventually fall into a groove and beat Ohio State.

Score: 28-20 USC


Upset Watch

Watch out for these upsets this week.

Mississippi State over Auburn

Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech

South Carolina over Georgia

FAU over Michigan State

I'm not predicting these upsets but I am just saying it MAY happen.


Photos courtesy of Google

Monday, September 8, 2008

Making it Work: Getting the Most out of what you got

In college football there are the traditional powerhouses that seem to have everything, large fan base, gigantic stadiums and blue chipper after blue chipper. Most of these teams come from the "loaded" states when it comes to recruiting. Some examples would be Florida, Texas, USC and Ohio State just to name a few.

But what about the teams that don't have the sufficient funds to travel the country and recruit these so called "blue chippers". How do these teams compete with the "big boys"? It's simple, they make the most out of what they got. These teams take the old saying "Work beats talent unless talent works" to heart. These teams cleverly develop gameplans and schemes and develop the little talent they have until they have a team that is mentally and physically strong enough to compete with the best. So getting into it, here are the teams that I picked in no particular order:

Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers seem to always put a team that is able to compete with the best. They always find themselves near the top of the Big 10 at the end of the season. Wisconsin fields a team made up of mostly average players who excel in team roles and therefore are able to win as many games as they do. Over the last four years, the Badgers have won a "cool" 40 games. Not bad for a team who had only 7 four or five star recruits from 2002-2007 according to Scout.com. By the way, PJ Hill was only a 2 star prospect coming out of high school, now he is a Heisman candidate. This year, the Badgers return 19 starters and this is probably there best chance of finally playing in a BCS game.

Check out this sick video of Wisconsin's Jump Around.

BYU Cougars

BYU has found themselves a big advantage over other football programs. Most of their players have gone on two year Mormon missions and come back with the same eligibility. For example, if they recruited a 19 year old freshman and he decided to go on a Mormon mission, he would come back in two years as a 21 year old freshman and could therefore still be playing for BYU when he is 25. This maturity has proven to be effective on the gridiron. BYU, over the last three seasons have won 28 games with three bowl invitations and 2 conference titles. How can a Mormon school from Utah be able to compete with the rest of the Mountain West let alone be able to compete the way BYU does against BCS schools? According to Bronco Mendenhall, some of his starters for the past few seasons were 0 star prospects meaning that they shouldn't have been recruited. Period. The BYU recruiting staff must view game film of these guys and dissect it really well or BYU has just gotten lucky with all of these "hidden gems"

West Virginia Mountaineers

When watching West Virginia play, I get the impression that they are one of the college football powerhouses that bring in blue chipper time and time again. Such is not the case. From 2002-2007 the Mountaineers have brought in only 3 five star prospects according to Scout.com: Noel Devine, Durrell Robinson and Jason Gwaltney. I have only heard of one of those players. No one would think that over the past five seasons, the Mountaineers could win 49 games, 4 conference titles and appear in 4 BCS Bowls. The Mountaineers playing style suits their player's strengths. Take Pat White for instance, a 2 star prospect coming out of high school with no big expectations quickly became a Heisman contender by his junior year. That's what I call getting the most out of your players.

Photos courtesy of Flickr and Google

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Leo's Crystal Ball: NFL Futures of Heisman Hopefulls

Looking at the Heisman watch, I got an idea to predict which Heisman candidates will succeed in the NFL and which ones will turn into busts (Ryan Leaf cough cough). The players who i have chosen are; Tim Tebow, Chase Daniel, Mark Sanchez and Percy Harvin

Tim Tebow


Whether you hate him or you love him, Tebow is the premiere quarterback in college football. Tebow has the arm strength, accuracy, speed and power. He is a quarterback in a linebackers body. He has faced top-notch competition and has put up ridiculous stats.

Some knocks on him are his mechanics and his durability from taking so many hits.

Tebow, in my opinion, is worthy of a #1 overall pick.

NFL Comparison: A way better version of Alex Smith.




Chase Daniel



Chase Daniel is responsible for Mizzou's revival in College Football. He is the prototypical quarterback to run the spread offense. If I coached an NFL team who ran the spread I would take him in an instant. The problem is that NFL teams do not run the spread and that quarterbacks who run the spread in college typically do not succeed in the NFL. Along with the fact that he stands at only 6 feet make the odds unfavorable for him.

Chase Daniel is a great college QB sure, but I don't think he will ever turn into a productive NFL QB.

NFL Comparison: A shorter, stockier version of Jared Zabransky.



Mark Sanchez

The next in-line of a rich quarterback history. The last three starting USC quarterbacks have gone on to have solid NFL careers (pending John David Booty) and Sanchez will be no different. Sanchez is a prototypical NFL quarterback. He stands at 6'3 and weighs 225 pounds. Sanchez posses a great touch and has good vision.

My knock on Sanchez is that he has not proven himself yet and seems to have some injury problems. I think Sanchez goes on to be a solid quarterback. I doubt he will make a pro bowl appearance but he will be consistent.

NFL Comparison: Kurt Warner




Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is arguably the fastest and quickest person in college football and quite possibly the NFL. He has reportedly been clocked at an inhuman-like 4.24 40 time. He is a great return man and a constant down field threat.

Percy Harvin seems to be a bit injury prone and durability is an issue. Will be able to catch the ball in traffic and take an NFL hit?
I think Percy Harvin will be the next great return man in the NFL and will take some of the hype off of Devin Hester.

NFL Comparison: A crossbreed hybrid of Desean Jackson, Devin Hester and Dante Hall


You can argue with me if you feel I made some bad projections. There will be more to come throughout the season.


Photos courtesy of Flickr